 |
Mohib's blog
“G20 Summit and Afghanistan
|
 In my previous article, I have explained in detail the impacts of Global Financial crisis on Afghanistan. This article will analyse the importance of G-20 summit for Afghanistan. As the World economy further gets victimised by the “economic monster” of modern capitalism and an increasing number of both developed and developing nations enter recession, it was obvious that G-20 summit in London will largely focus on tackling the economic slump. It has been over a week since the heads of state and governments of G-20 group gathered in London to seek solutions for the many economic challenges created by financial crises. Leaders of the world’s largest economies discussed plans to deal with the severe economic downturn, restore growth in the short term, reshape financial system, preserve global trading system, and laying foundations for a sustainable economic recovery. Despite agreeing on some key points to restore confidence, growths, and jobs, strengthen financial supervision and regulation, fund and reform international financial institutions to overcome such crisis and prevent future ones, promote global trade and investment and reject protectionism, support sustainable recovery, the summit also agreed on providing $1.1 trillion in resources to the IMF and other international institutions to confront the economic crises. The figure includes an agreement to boost the IMF's lending resources from its current level of $250 billion to $750 billion while an additional $250 billion is allocated to boost World trade and $100 billion would be given in aid for developing countries. Afghanistan would certainly be benefited directly and indirectly both in the long and short terms by the agreements made in the G-20 summit. Firstly, Afghanistan requires exactly the same parameters to economically grow and to have strong financial integrated markets. This may well be a long term goal but it would only be possible if the global economy is in good health. Secondly, there are now more funds available ($750bn) with international financial institutions and a small fraction of which can rescue Afghanistan in the time of need, in case the international community fails to finance Afghan government machinery, which is very unlikely, but that would be costly and tied many unkind conditions. However, in the past six months many developing nations such as Ukraine, Hungary and Pakistan have turned to IMF for much needed funds despite many strict demands. Thirdly, the extra $100bn in aid for developing countries will help Afghanistan to continue with projects mostly financed by the International development and financial organisations such the World Bank, IMF, and Asian Development Bank. Fourthly and most importantly, Afghanistan is likely to benefit more from the promotion of global trade and investment than borrowing, charity or aid. The figure of $250 billion is set aside to boost World trade; however it is too early to comment on the share and nature of trade and investment promotion Afghanistan will receive. In short, the G-20 summit would benefit the World’s economy and developing countries including Afghanistan to an extent but it would not find magic solutions within few months or perhaps few years. Nevertheless, the recovery of World’s economy will have two very important positive impacts on Afghanistan’s economy. First – Private sector development, international trade and investment would grow again, and which is vital for a Self-sufficient Economy. In the initial euphoria after the fall of Taliban in 2001, private investment grew steadily to $1.2-billion in 2006. But it slid to $646-million in 2007 and has plummeted further to $316-million by September 2008. The figure for 2009 is also not very promising either according to the Afghan Investment Support Agency. Private sector development will only take when the World’s economy is in good shape. Historically, World economy has grown well after such crisis and developing nations are equally benefited. Second - Aid from the international community and non-governmental organizations makes up about 40 percent of Afghanistan's legal GDP, which means, greater the financial crisis, deeper the negative impacts would be on Afghanistan. Thus, the recovery of global economy is in the best interest of Afghanistan, which would ensure the continuous inflow of funds in the form of international aid to finance government’s spending and funding other key projects. G-20 summit may help to ease the global economic pain. However, Afghanistan needs a G-20 style summit to specifically assist in rebuilding financial system, fostering trade and investment and strengthening overall economy. The international community prioritizing economic reconstruction and infrastructural development is still lacking. Afghanistan probably does not need more NGOs that come, start projects and leave when the funding runs out. We need the development of private sector which is something not largely prioritized and as a result reconstruction goals have not been met and strategic economic objectives are not achieved. Afghanistan needs investment, which would simply create more jobs, will generate more revenue for the government, would increase production and exports, and would lay down an economic platform for ordinary Afghans. Unless, the international community pave the way for a long-term sustainable economic recovery and growth, and help to establish an environment suitable for trade and investment, Afghanistan would fail to boost fiscal revenue, create the required amount jobs, and alleviate mounting poverty. The Afghan government would also need to work hard with the international community to ensure good, transparent and accountable governance, correct enforcement of laws and regulations and the correct implementation and execution of trade and investment policies if they are truly serious to secure a viable economic future. 
|
|
|
|
 |
G20 Summit and Afghanistan
|
 In my previous article, I have explained in detail the impacts of Global Financial crisis on Afghanistan. This article will analyse the importance of G-20 summit for Afghanistan. As the World economy further gets victimised by the “economic monster” of modern capitalism and an increasing number of both developed and developing nations enter recession, it was obvious that G-20 summit in London will largely focus on tackling the economic slump. It has been over a week since the heads of state and governments of G-20 group gathered in London to seek solutions for the many economic challenges created by financial crises. Leaders of the world’s largest economies discussed plans to deal with the severe economic downturn, restore growth in the short term, reshape financial system, preserve global trading system, and laying foundations for a sustainable economic recovery. Despite agreeing on some key points to restore confidence, growths, and jobs, strengthen financial supervision and regulation, fund and reform international financial institutions to overcome such crisis and prevent future ones, promote global trade and investment and reject protectionism, support sustainable recovery, the summit also agreed on providing $1.1 trillion in resources to the IMF and other international institutions to confront the economic crises. The figure includes an agreement to boost the IMF's lending resources from its current level of $250 billion to $750 billion while an additional $250 billion is allocated to boost World trade and $100 billion would be given in aid for developing countries. Afghanistan would certainly be benefited directly and indirectly both in the long and short terms by the agreements made in the G-20 summit. Firstly, Afghanistan requires exactly the same parameters to economically grow and to have strong financial integrated markets. This may well be a long term goal but it would only be possible if the global economy is in good health. Secondly, there are now more funds available ($750bn) with international financial institutions and a small fraction of which can rescue Afghanistan in the time of need, in case the international community fails to finance Afghan government machinery, which is very unlikely, but that would be costly and tied many unkind conditions. However, in the past six months many developing nations such as Ukraine, Hungary and Pakistan have turned to IMF for much needed funds despite many strict demands. Thirdly, the extra $100bn in aid for developing countries will help Afghanistan to continue with projects mostly financed by the International development and financial organisations such the World Bank, IMF, and Asian Development Bank. Fourthly and most importantly, Afghanistan is likely to benefit more from the promotion of global trade and investment than borrowing, charity or aid. The figure of $250 billion is set aside to boost World trade; however it is too early to comment on the share and nature of trade and investment promotion Afghanistan will receive. In short, the G-20 summit would benefit the World’s economy and developing countries including Afghanistan to an extent but it would not find magic solutions within few months or perhaps few years. Nevertheless, the recovery of World’s economy will have two very important positive impacts on Afghanistan’s economy. First – Private sector development, international trade and investment would grow again, and which is vital for a Self-sufficient Economy. In the initial euphoria after the fall of Taliban in 2001, private investment grew steadily to $1.2-billion in 2006. But it slid to $646-million in 2007 and has plummeted further to $316-million by September 2008. The figure for 2009 is also not very promising either according to the Afghan Investment Support Agency. Private sector development will only take when the World’s economy is in good shape. Historically, World economy has grown well after such crisis and developing nations are equally benefited. Second - Aid from the international community and non-governmental organizations makes up about 40 percent of Afghanistan's legal GDP, which means, greater the financial crisis, deeper the negative impacts would be on Afghanistan. Thus, the recovery of global economy is in the best interest of Afghanistan, which would ensure the continuous inflow of funds in the form of international aid to finance government’s spending and funding other key projects. G-20 summit may help to ease the global economic pain. However, Afghanistan needs a G-20 style summit to specifically assist in rebuilding financial system, fostering trade and investment and strengthening overall economy. The international community prioritizing economic reconstruction and infrastructural development is still lacking. Afghanistan probably does not need more NGOs that come, start projects and leave when the funding runs out. We need the development of private sector which is something not largely prioritized and as a result reconstruction goals have not been met and strategic economic objectives are not achieved. Afghanistan needs investment, which would simply create more jobs, will generate more revenue for the government, would increase production and exports, and would lay down an economic platform for ordinary Afghans. Unless, the international community pave the way for a long-term sustainable economic recovery and growth, and help to establish an environment suitable for trade and investment, Afghanistan would fail to boost fiscal revenue, create the required amount of jobs, and alleviate mounting poverty. The Afghan government would also need to work hard with the international community to ensure good, transparent and accountable governance, correct enforcement of laws and regulations and the correct implementation and execution of trade and investment policies if they are truly serious to secure a viable economic future. 
|
|
|
|
 |
Afghanistan needs you!!! Or does it...?!?
|
“Afghans are growing increasingly disenchanted with their perceived second-class status in their own country. [They] are paid a fraction of the salaries given to international experts, and it is disgruntling for well-educated locals to see foreign aid workers frequenting restaurants and shops that they themselves cannot afford.” (Mojumdar 2008) Or indeed, stores that they are not let into! There has been a lot of talk about the resentment of local Afghans towards the returnees and expatriates. They take the jobs, make the housing prices skyrocket, and ultimately do nothing for the common good. They extract what they can before returning back to their comfortable lives in the West. Every Afghan who returns wants to be treated like a king or a queen in their own right. People have been thrown out to the streets by their own families, who have come to claim the property that they did not care for during all the years of war, just to rent it for international NGO’s and other organizations for some extra dollars (if you recognize yourself from this description, I hope you feel a twinge in your heart just about now). Whatever happened to that famous Afghan hospitality, not to mention the family ties? Well, you know what they say… “You can find anything in Afghanistan, as long as you have the money.” I suppose our hospitality is for sale now too, up for grabs for the highest bidder. The following are just a few comments from Afghans in the West concerning a possible return: “I will return if they pay me well enough.” “Depends on what position I will get.” “Who can guarantee my security if I do return?” (Who can guarantee anyone’s security in Afghanistan? While admittedly it is the government who is the guarantor of security in any healthy nation, I doubt if these people have realized the state of the Afghan government and the overwhelming tasks it is faced with, even without having to guarantee the security of every returning Afghan.) I do not wish to belittle the valuable work that so many Afghans and non-Afghans who have returned to Afghanistan do, while leaving families behind and risking their life, for surely the country needs them. What I am critical about, however, is the arrogance and pride that so many people return with. There are millions of bright minds in Afghanistan just waiting to get the same opportunities that we have received in the West. We are not “something else”, a higher race of Afghans, that would make us somehow more deserving of protection, money and possibilities. It should be an honour for us to do whatever little it is that we can for our country, without making Afghanistan our “playground” in the process. When one truly wants to help, it should not depend on the position, nor should the salary be a deciding factor beyond being able to make ends meet (and this does not include living in Wazir Akbar Khan). The aid money is disappearing like ashes to the wind before it ever reaches the ordinary Afghans. This serves to increase the discontent towards the international community and returnees as well as the elites, which in turn creates fertile breeding ground for support for the Taliban and other opposition groups. And then we’re back at one, going around in a vicious circle. The dissipation is evident in the government as well. There are some 24 different ministries in Afghanistan. Looking at the list it seems ridiculous having a ‘Ministry of Finance’ and a ‘Ministry of Economy’. Then there’s the ‘Ministry of Education’ and ‘Ministry of Higher Education’. And what about the ‘Ministry of Public Welfare’ and the ‘Ministry of Public Health’? I could go on and on until the list is down to roughly a dozen or so vital ministries. Are we really so bad with our management skills that we need a ministry for everything? Indeed, two ministries for matters that could perhaps more easily be taken care of under one roof. Or, (and I know at least 24 people who will probably be upset about my accusations) were there too many “important” men going to be left jobless if we didn’t create all of these minister posts? I don’t know about others opinions on this matter, but to me it seems like a disgusting waste of resources in a time when that money could be used for much more productive activities! What makes the number of ministries even more ridiculous is the fact that apart from a few, they don’t even manage to fulfil their functions. This being the time of change and hope around the world, watching Obama’s inauguration speech, the following struck me as something I wish that would have come from an Afghan president: “The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works...And those of us who manage the public's dollars will be held to account -- to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day -- because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.” (Emphasis my own). Those few who truly want to do good either get so discouraged that they end up leaving, or worse, they stop caring and turn into the very people that are keeping the country in the desperate state that it is in. What hope does this leave Afghanistan with?
Reference from: (Mojumdar, A. 2008 Afghanistan: the Challenges Facing the Next US Presidential Administration, Eurasia Insight, Eurasianet. Available from: http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav102108a.shtml . Accessed: 24.01.2009)
|
|
| January 31, 2009 | 8:01 AM |
|
|
 |
As if we haven't learned anything from the past?!?
|
For those of you who didn’t read the news in the past few weeks, the US has announced its new strategy in Afghanistan. In addition to sending in 30,000 new troops this includes arming local militias to fight the Taliban. Sound familiar? Apart from being a repetition of the US strategy in Iraq, it should strike a chord closer to home. The wounds from the last time the United States armed Afghan fighters have not yet healed and already a new round is planned. Have we really not learned anything from the past or do we just play ignorant? In Iraq there were (roughly) two warring groups, the Shiia and the Sunni. American officials themselves have counted that in Afghanistan there are over 400 tribal groups which could potentially attack each other. I am no military strategist or a political advisor, but my common sense says that something doesn’t add up here. The fact that there is even a chance these militias will be fighting anyone else other than the Taliban should be enough to halt such plans. Then again the Americans, who have been advising the government with their right hand while handing money and other resources to the warlords with their left one, have never quite mastered their military strategies. Or perhaps I am underestimating the US. Maybe a lack of a real strategy in 2001 has caused them to put at least some effort into this one. Or maybe they have finally found out what we Afghans have known all along; every invader leaves eventually (and we will endure whatever it takes till this moment comes). For an Empire (despite a diminishing one) like the United States to admit defeat in Afghanistan would be unbearable. So here’s the plan: arm the Afghan militias, step back and in no time they will start killing each other (surely a few Talibans will be caught in the line of fire every now and then). You see, technically that would be a civil war and the US would have no real interest in it. Not until the war is taken back to the US soil anyway, and this will take a few years. Above all this would be a great excuse for a withdrawal without admitting defeat. Later on the US officials can blame it on the Afghan blood and say there was nothing they could have done to stop it. All of these wars are in our genes, encrypted in our DNA. We’re such mean killing machines that if they didn’t give us guns we were going to do it by bare hands. Then there are traditional sayings such as “Me against my brother, my brother and me against my cousins, we and our cousins against the enemy” at hand to further prove a point. The country is such that even the Almighty One comes there to weep. As for us Afghans, we can once more be proud that we stood undefeated. Who cares what price we have to pay for this…
But I am getting carried away here. What I really had in mind were some questions. What is going to happen to the weapons once the militias have defeated the Taliban (assuming they would)? Who can make sure these weapons don't get into wrong hands? What is done to ensure that the fighters, both militia men as well as the Taliban, are rehabilitated back into the society by giving them alternative options later on? ARE THERE GOING TO BE ANY ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS?!? Or are they going to be stuffed in cargo containers, as the surrendered Taliban fighters were in 2001, in a hope that they suffocate sooner rather than later? Why is the Afghan government so willing to shoot itself on the foot when the US asks it to? All I have is questions. I am hoping someone else is thinking about the answers.
|
|
| December 30, 2008 | 12:12 PM |
|
|
 |
Preparing for Tomorrow
|
Is it coincidental that Islam is going through a reformation 1400 years after its birth just like Christianity whose reformation started in the early 1500A.D? Different Christian sects such as the Protestants and Catholics fought with themselves until they learnt to live with their differences (relatively). Afghanistan, the battlefield of world's most conflicts – first a buffer state between the British Empire and USSR, then the Russian Invasion and US supported war against them, then Al-Qaida’s training camp - is once again being used, not to decide on a new super-power but to decide on which sect is the true recreation of the values that were once in place during the reign of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH). Wahabi, a Saudi backed sect has been penetrating the South and East of Afghanistan for quite a while now. Shia, an Iranian backed sect has now joined in the race from the North. It is a war of ideology that is working on a grass roots level to gain strength and support in the country. It hasn't resorted to violence yet, but one that will create chaos in the next decade to come. Educational institutes, a place for unbiased and progressive education to flourish, are now at the centre of this divide. It won’t be the first time religion is used as a reason to make Afghans go to war. The only difference this round will be that the enemy will not be a foreign invader, at least not physically. Both opponents will be Muslims, both believing their chosen sect is the right one and their key to heaven. Those who have a religion carry a great amount of love and respect for it – some consider it personal while others believe it is their duty to spread it far and wide. There are different methods used by religious preachers to spread their selected religion and the one they believe is the right one. A religious missionary in his or her truest form will never harm, but only try to raise awareness about the path he/she believes is the right one and will make the world a better place. Fundamentalism, on the other hand is largely politically motivated – using the less informed to turn them in to extremists. When thinking about religious fundamentalism the first thing that comes to mind implied is Islam - a misleading idea promoted by the Western media to justify the shameful war in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are Christian and Jewish fundamentalists, certainly more (some are) discrete in their operations and with more control of the situation to keep their work low profile. The dispute on ID and evolution is a good example of the existence of fundamentalism in the American politics. Fundamentalism doesn’t have quick fixes; it cannot be resolved by war. Those who are fighting the war know this – a clear indication that the current war has other political/financial reasons than abolishing fundamentalism. It is a widely known fact that prevention is better than cure. It is too late for prevention in some cases. To undo that damage will require strategic work and time. Where it is not too late, staying vigilant and protecting the society from the things that would cause harm is important, such as in the case of preventing a future sectarian war. Looking back at history, when the Christians were busy fighting the inter-religious war and while there was still religious persecution in place from the 1300AD to 1600AD they stayed confined to Europe and made no significant scientific progress. The current state of the Muslim world explains why that was the case. On the contrary, this (between 8th and 16th century) was a peaceful time for the Muslims; they made significant scientific discoveries and were at the peak of their cultural and intellectual progress – known as the Islamic Golden Age. Ibne-Sina (Avicenna), Jalal ad-Din Muhammad Rumi (Rumi), Alzheimer, Algebra, chemistry (then Alchemy) are well known contributors and contributions to scientific and intellectual progress. (Wikipedia article - Science in medieval Islam is a good starting point to find out more for those interested) Moreover, the Muslim empire was spread over three continents, Africa, Asia and Europe. ( See Map of the Islamic Empire) Its downfall started when Muslims diverted their focus to nationalism, power and greed. It coincides with the rise of the Christian's progress in both scientific and intellectual fields. Afghanistan is not the only country in the region with a Muslim population of different religious groups (sects). However, what makes this country more vulnerable to its devastating effect is the high level illiteracy and religious ignorance. In addition to this it is an already divided nation on many fronts widely known such as ethnicity, language, and now religion. The attitude of divide has grown so much that it is in everything we do. If there is no reason for a divide, we create one. The latest one that came with the American invasion was the gender divide. Every Afghan woman I meet with the potential of making a real difference in the life of all Afghans work for the progress of women alone and every man is against it. What about the nation? What about integration? Without noticing it, we have formed an imbalanced society which is vulnerable and incomplete. Afghans’ good majority, who will soon be on the front line of this sectarian war, cannot differentiate religious obligations to cultural. Some widely known examples are: • Divorce is an acceptable but not favoured practice in Islam; however it is over ruled by the Afghan culture. In most cases, no matter how unhappy the couples are in a marriage, they are not allowed to divorce. • Racism and slavery were forbidden by Islam 1400 years ago. In the famous farewell pilgrimage speech by the Prophet Mohammed (PBUH), he said ‘There is only one God, and no Arab is superior to a Non-Arab; nor is a Non-Arab superior to an Arab; a White is not superior to a Black, nor a Black over the White. The only criterion for superiority is Taqwa – i.e. righteousness, piety, and God-consciousness'. Yet the first question an Afghan asks you will pertain to if you are an Afghan: “Where in Afghanistan are you from?” The answer to this question decides whether you qualify to be human or not, in his/her eyes. Most Afghans seem to think every other ethnicity should be wiped off the face of the earth or at least suppressed because their own tribe/ethnicity is the best. All the other ethnicities are a curse God sent upon them. This is fascism in its clearest form obviously banned by Islam. • Islam has mentioned men and women exactly the same number of times in the Quran (24 times each), explicitly gave them an equal status, and made education a must on both of them. The culture only favours men. Culture over rules Islam yet again. It is probably weaknesses in religious practices, as above, and the lack of understanding of the religion Islam itself amongst the general public that is fuelling religious conflicts. Whatever the reason is, it is going to set Afghanistan and possibly the region back in to chaos for many decades. The flames of this conflict will most certainly burn whatever is left of Afghanistan if preventative measures are not taken immediately.
|
|
| November 8, 2008 | 1:11 AM |
|
Latest Posts
Monthly Archive
Change Language
Filter By Type
Friends
3509 views
|
 |